Following a successful 2025, manufacturers of industrial valves are looking to the current year with increasing scepticism. International uncertainties and geopolitical tensions are significantly dampening expectations. Although the sector performed well last year, the outlook is currently deteriorating noticeably. It remains to be seen whether the overseas business, which has grown steadily in recent years, can continue to serve as a key driver of growth in the short term.
In 2025, the sector even exceeded optimistic forecasts with a 7% rise in turnover (4% after adjusting for price changes). Whilst domestic business grew by 4%, overseas revenue rose even more sharply, by 9%.
“The trade disputes with the US did not slow the industry down last year. However, against the backdrop of the conflicts in the Middle East, sentiment is now noticeably deteriorating,” explains Axel Weidner, Chairman of the VDMA Valves and Fittings Association and a partner at Mankenberg GmbH. “In addition to the limited availability of intermediate products and high energy and raw material prices, companies are now also being weighed down by weakening sales markets. There is a global reluctance to invest, and, not least, the location factors in Germany and Europe still leave room for improvement.”
Significant dependence on geopolitical developments
“At the end of the year, our members’ order books were still well filled,” adds Dr Laura Dorfer, Managing Director of the VDMA Valves and Fittings Association. “How the year unfolds now depends largely on whether the crisis in the Gulf and the associated shortage of raw materials persists or eases.”
The association expects a slight decline in turnover for 2026. In the long term, however, the industry remains optimistic: it is considered resilient and has already successfully weathered numerous crises. Furthermore, in the coming months, companies intend to showcase their products at leading international trade fairs such as IFAT Munich and the Valve World Expo, and to generate new momentum.
Export business is losing momentum
The export business remained robust last year despite existing US tariffs. Exports rose by 4.7% to €5.5 billion. However, demand from China weakened significantly: exports to the People’s Republic fell by 12.5% to €592.5 million.
Dr Dorfer reports on growing challenges regarding market access: “On the one hand, key user industries are no longer growing as strongly; on the other, our members are increasingly reporting barriers to market access – partly due to a stronger preference for local suppliers.”
In contrast, business with the USA – the second-largest trading partner – continued to develop positively, growing by 5.8% to €574.0 million. France maintained its position as the third-largest sales market with a moderate increase of 1.4% to €307.1 million. “Overall, the international environment remains challenging,” said Dorfer. “Global competition has become noticeably fiercer in 2025 – and this is likely to continue to shape the year 2026.”
