The ZVEI has once again lowered its annual forecast following a recent survey of its members. The German Electrical and Digital Manufacturers' Association now expects production to decline by 7% in 2024, compared to a 2% drop at the beginning of the year.
No economic recovery in sight
‘The economic improvement expected for the course of this year 2024 has so far failed to materialise,’ says Wolfgang Weber, Chairman of the ZVEI Management Board, referring to a recent member survey by the Association of the Electrical and Digital Industry.
According to the survey, a good half of the companies organised in the ZVEI (56%) expect at best a similar development to the previous year by the end of the year. More than a third (39%) even expect the trend to be worse than in the last quarter of 2023.
The business climate in the sector also suffered a significant setback in September 2024. General business expectations in particular were more pessimistic. However, the assessment of the current situation also deteriorated compared to August.
ZVEI lowers business forecast for 2024 to -7%
‘Against the backdrop of persistently declining industry figures and the overall weak German economy, we are lowering our production forecast for the German electrical and digital industry from minus two to minus seven per cent at the beginning of the year,’ explains Weber.
The CEO is calling on politicians to take decisive action. In particular, the excessive bureaucracy must be tackled: ‘Our country now needs a turnaround in efficiency. Less bureaucracy, more freedom for entrepreneurial spirit and room for innovation. It is crucial to harmonise industry, economic growth, resilience and climate protection in order to secure economic stability and competitiveness as well as productivity and innovative strength in Germany and Europe in the long term.’
The electrical and digital industry sees significant opportunities for the location in the accelerated electrification and digitalisation as well as the focus on key technologies that are indispensable for the economic transformation.
Production down by almost 10% since January
The price-adjusted production of electrical and electronic goods in Germany was 13.0% lower in August than in the same month of the previous year. For the period from January to August 2024, this results in a decline in industry output of 9.7% compared to the previous year.
At € 18 billion, turnover in the German electrical and digital industry in August 2024 fell 8.9% short of the previous year's figure. Aggregated turnover for January to August 2024 totalled EUR 146.4 billion, down 7.6% on the previous year.
Incoming orders in the German electrical and digital industry also do not yet indicate a turnaround: In August, they were down 16.1% on the previous year. In the first eight months of this year, orders fell by a total of 10.9% compared to the previous year.
Following their slight recovery in August, both the production and employment plans of electrical companies deteriorated noticeably again in September 2024. Most recently, the German electrical and digital industry employed 895,000 people, 34,800 of whom are currently on short-time work.
Further information can be found at www.zvei.org.
