In the two affected federal states and in the water associations that operate the dams, there is a desire to learn, and the process of coming to terms with the situation has been initiated. But it does not give the impression that they want to learn everything: the second type of flood, the dam issue, is only approached with very pointed fingers. The excuses are: Almost everything went well.
It is conspicuous that the actors stop at a small-scale and isolated investigation approach. However, the question of how to regulate dams under the conditions of climate change - i.e. under completely changed weather conditions - in such a way that they are able to guarantee flood protection in the future as well, must be addressed on a much larger scale if it is to be fruitful. New large-scale weather situations of the “Central European depression” type can lead to stationary permanent precipitation that affects an entire river basin. Such a major depression currently occurs in this country on an average of nine to 15 days a year - and can hardly be predicted with local precision five days in advance.
The dam operators, for their part, rightly point out that they are only able to create sufficient reservoir space with a five-day lead time - given the usually high filling levels of the dams in summer. This is a real dilemma; and novel. According to the German Meteorological Service (DWD), by the year 2100 large-scale weather conditions that pose a flood risk will occur about 20 percent more frequently than before. No progress will be made here without a joint working group of DWD, dam operators and supervisory authorities. The DWD has set up a working group on forecasting suitable for dams, but against all the principles of wise science, its questions are withheld from public discussion by confidentiality.
High risk for regions around the low mountain range
However, the issue of how to manage dams under the conditions of climate change does not only concern the Wupperverband or the federal states of North Rhine-Westphalia and Rhineland-Palatinate. There are more than 370 dams in Germany - the majority of which will have to adapt to the consequences of climate change. The low mountain ranges will be particularly affected by persistent extreme precipitation.
The districts that will have to expect the most extreme precipitation in the future stretch like a ribbon from southern North Rhine-Westphalia, from parts of Rhineland-Palatinate across Hesse and southern Thuringia down to the east and centre of Bavaria. This is what a study by the Hamburg Climate Service Center (CSC) predicts, prepared in 2015 for the German Insurance Association. The topic of “adapting dam management to climate change” affects at least five federal states. In fact, however, the state government of North Rhine-Westphalia announces that it will only review “the existing management concepts for dams” “on the basis of the findings from the 2021 flood”. And that too only in “discussions with the affected water associations”.